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Antimony market review and outlook for the first half of 2018

Release date:2018/7/19 17:25:44

Antimony price trend review

In the first half of 2018, antimony prices generally showed a narrow range of shock operation.

The price of antimony ingots (# 2) in the domestic market remained at 51,000 to 52,000 yuan per ton in January and February, according to an offer on the website of antimony industry branch of China nonferrous metal industry association.

During the Spring Festival, enterprises stopped production and had a holiday, and inventories were low. Suppliers raised their prices after the Spring Festival. In march, the price of antimony ingots increased to 51,000 ~ 53,000 yuan/ton.

The price of antimony trioxide (99.5%) is relatively stable, holding at 47,000-48,000 yuan/ton in January, February and march.

In April, demand for antimony was weak, buyers were less enthusiastic, and prices for antimony ingots and antimony oxides fell slightly.

Antimony ingot prices in mid-may after dropped to 50000 yuan/ton, in environmental protection inspectorate environmental inspections in guangxi and hunan lengshuijiang, under the influence of factors such as antimony prices rallied in late may, June, antimony ingot prices remained stable as a whole.

The domestic market

According to the quotation on the website of antimony industry branch of China nonferrous metal industry association, the price of antimony ingot (# 2) in the domestic market remained at 51,000 ~ 52,000 yuan/ton in June.

The price of antimony trioxide (99.5%) dropped from 46,500 yuan to 47,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of June to 45,000 yuan/ton at the end of June, down 2.1% for the month.

In June, the average price of antimony ingots (# 2) was 51,000 ~ 52,000 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from the previous month and down 11.4% from the previous year.

The average price of antimony trioxide (99.5%) was 4,6143 ~ 4,7286 yuan/ton, up 0.7% from the previous month and down 12.0% from the previous year.

From January to June, the average price of antimony ingot (# 2) was 50889~52146 yuan/ton, down 8.4% year on year.

The average price of antimony trioxide (99.5%) was 46600 yuan to 47696 yuan/ton, down 7.4% year on year.

The international market

In the first half of the international market, antimony ingot prices showed a narrow range of shock trend.

In the first quarter, the price of antimony ingot rose gradually due to the tight spot supply in the European antimony market.

Antimony ingot (MMTA standard Ⅱ) price for $8000 to $8350 / ton in early January, early march rose to $8600 to $8800 / ton.

In the second quarter, as goods arrived at European Rotterdam warehouses, demand was weak, and the price of antimony ingots fell in a volatile way, falling to $7,900 to $8,150 a tonne at the end of June.

Antimony ingot (MMTA standard Ⅱ) price in early June 8150 ~ $8450 / ton, down to $7900 to $8150 / ton at the end of June, the months decreased 3.3%.

2 supply and demand

According to the statistics of China nonferrous metal industry association, the production of antimony concentrate nationwide in May 2018 was 0.79 million tons (metal content), and the cumulative production of antimony concentrate from January to May 2015 was 33 million tons, an increase of 8.5% over the previous year.

In may, the production of antimony products was 16,800 thousand tons (physical quantity), and the cumulative production of antimony products from January to may was 74,300 tons, down 1.54% from the previous year.

According to antimony industry branch of China nonferrous metals industry association statistics show that in May 2018, antimony antimony industry branch member enterprises produced 4014 tons of raw materials and other) (antimony concentrate (metals), 1 ~ 5 month accumulative total antimony produced 16306 tons of raw materials, fell 7.2% year on year.

The output of antimony ingot was 7,092 tons in May, and the cumulative output of antimony ingot from January to may was 26,843 tons, down 9.6% year on year.

From January to may, the proportion of antimony ingot production in hunan, yunnan, guizhou and guangxi was 65.3%, 12.4%, 11.8% and 7.3% respectively.

The production of antimony oxide in May was 7,893 tons, and the cumulative production of antimony oxide in January and may was 34,767 tons, down 9.4 percent year on year.

From January to may, the proportion of antimony oxide production in hunan, guangxi, guangdong, guizhou and yunnan was 60.6%, 19.1%, 9.3%, 6.4% and 4.4% respectively.

In terms of demand, antimony downstream consumption is generally stable.

Antimony applications, plastic products, chemical fiber, synthetic fiber, synthetic rubber production increased slightly.

From January to may, 2018, the national production of plastic products was 2.6058 million tons, up 2.6% year on year.

The output of chemical fiber was 19.844 million tons, up 6.3% year on year.

The output of synthetic fiber was 177.08 million tons, up 5.8 percent year on year.

The production of synthetic rubber was 2.261 million tons, up 9.4 percent year on year.

From January to may, China's auto production was 11.993 million vehicles, up 2.0% year on year.

The output of household refrigerators was 3.2686 million, up 4.4% year on year.

The output of room air conditioning was 90.254 million, up 16.1% year on year.

The production of solar photovoltaic cells was 37,628,000 kw, up 13.7% year on year.

China is the world's largest producer and exporter of antimony, because domestic antimony concentrate cannot meet the needs of smelting production, it needs to import large amounts of antimony raw materials.

The customs has not yet released data on the import and export of antimony in May, and the import volume of antimony concentrate in China is expected to remain basically unchanged from the same period of last year from January to may, with the export volume of antimony oxide increasing slightly.

According to Japan's antimony import and export data, the demand for antimony in Japan increased slightly.

From January to May 2018, the export volume of unwrought antimony rolling in Japan was 116.9 tons, up by 21.0% year on year.

Imports were 2727.9 tonnes, up 25.7 per cent year on year.

Among them, 1652.4 tons were imported from China, up 16.8% year on year.

Japan's net imports of unwrought antimony were 2611.0 tons, up 25.9 percent year on year.

From January to may, Japan's exports of antimony oxide were 609.0 tons, up 3.5% year on year.

Imports were 1806.2 tonnes, down 3.8% from a year earlier.

Of that, 1,496 tonnes were imported from China, down 2.4 per cent year on year.

Japan's net imports of antimony oxide fell 7.1 per cent from a year earlier to 1,197.2 tonnes.

3 policy direction

On July 7, the central environmental protection inspector "looked back" at the end of the work.

Approved by the party central committee and the state council, the first central environmental protection supervision "look back" six inspectorate May 30, 2018 to June 7, in succession to hebei, Inner Mongolia, heilongjiang, jiangsu, jiangxi, henan, guangdong, guangxi, yunnan, ningxia and other 10 provinces (area) the implementation of supervision.

As of July 7, all inspectors have been completed.

During its entry into China, the inspection team held individual talks with a total of 140 leading cadres, including 51 provincial leaders and 89 provincial and municipal leaders.

Visit 101 provincial departments and units concerned;

Access to more than 69,000 copies of information;

Subsidence supervision was carried out on 120 sites (cities and alliances).

Inspectorate attaches great importance to the environmental demands, by the end of July 7, 45989 received the masses to report, through carding analysis, dealt with 38165 valid url, close and repeat to report to the local complaint after 37090.

Each inspectorate focus on information disclosure, in view of the inspectors found "surface rectification" "pretend rectification" "improvement", after combing have published more than 50 typical case, cause social backlash, played an inspector deterrent, warning and the function of education.

And each inspectorate according to the arrangement of inspector has entered the stage of inspectors report drafted and case volume comb, and arrange for special personnel continue to focus on local overseers and change situation, ensure that has not yet been transferred to the masses to report able to investigate in place, and the public in place, accountability, to ensure that the masses to report both have implemented, everything has a reply.

4 future market outlook

According to the international monetary fund's world economic outlook report in April 2018, the global economy will grow by 3.8% in 2017, the fastest pace since 2011.

Global growth is expected to rise to 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019, 0.1 percentage points higher than in 2017.

Developed economies, the IMF said this year's growth rate will be faster than the potential growth rate, the overall growth in emerging markets and developing economies are expected to further strengthen, Asia and Europe will continue to strong growth in emerging economies.

At the same time, the IMF report noted that while the risks to the short-term outlook were broadly balanced between the upside and downside risks, the risks over the next few quarters were significantly skewed towards the downside.

Downside risks, including the financial situation may be much tighter, weakened the widespread support for global economic integration, trade friction intensified, countries could turn to protectionist policies, as well as the geopolitical political tensions.

Since march, the United States has taken a series of protectionist measures and initiated a trade war.

On March 8, the President of the United States signed a trump announced a high tariff on imported steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on imported steel, a 10% tariff on imports aluminum products, tariff measures take effect in 15 days.

On March 22nd Mr Trump signed a presidential memorandum that would impose massive tariffs on imports from China and restrict Chinese investment in the us, according to the "301 survey".

On April 3, the recommendations issued tariffs from China imported products list, the list contains about 1300 independent tariff project, worth about $50 billion, suggested that extra 25% tariffs on Chinese products on the list.

Subsequently, China took equal and equal measures to counter American products in accordance with the law.

On June 15, the U.S. government announced on China's $50 billion goods imposing a 25% import tariff, of which about $34 billion in Chinese imports tariffs measures will take effect on July 6th, for the rest of the tariffs of about $16 billion commodity will step into a solicit opinions from the public.

On June 16, of the People's Republic of China decided to agricultural products, automobile, aquatic products such as the United States of soybean imports equivalent tariffs measures, tax rate of 25%, involving imports account for about $34 billion, will take effect from July 6, 2018.

At the same time, the Chinese side for the import of chemical, medical equipment, energy products and other products into the mouth of imposing a 25% tariff, involving 2017 Chinese imports account for about $16 billion from the United States, the final measures and effective time will be announced.

Key partners such as the United States to China a trade war, the economy has been gradually began to counter the unilateralism and protect the main meaning of the United States and international trade has become the main risk of a global economic recovery.

From the perspective of the supply and demand fundamentals of antimony, the downstream consumption of antimony is relatively stable, and consumers purchase on demand.

In terms of supply, antimony smelting production is restricted by the shortage of domestic raw materials and environmental protection.

Supervision of environmental protection will become the norm and system, antimony smelting industry blowdown licence application and issuance of work, inspection of environmental protection to strengthen discharge permit management and environmental protection, to enterprise's environmental requirements more strict, this will increase the cost of production.

The United States is determined to fight a trade war, which has intensified as China is forced to fight it, dragging down the global economic recovery.

Facing the complicated international economic and political situation, domestic enterprises should according to the demands of the development of high quality, continue to strengthen supply side structural reform, optimize the product structure, expanding domestic demand, reasonable arrangement of production according to the market demand, pay attention to the fan the risks of the external environment change.

Based on the above analysis, it is expected that antimony prices will remain stable in the second half of the year.

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